Can & how does one influences the Outcome?
How can one change one’s consequences?
What happens when one changes one’s perspective?
Can curiosity create wonders?
Small Island, Big Economy
On 26th June 1843, Britishers took possession of Hongkong, then a small island adjoining China. A couple of years before the occupation, Queen Victoria wrote to her Uncle, King Leopold of Belgium in 1841, “Albert is so amused at my having got the island of Hong Kong”. Hong Kong was little more than a backwater of about 20 villages and hamlets.
Today the same island of Hongkong boasts of being World’s Freest Economy, completely driven by Services that contribute 90% of its GDP. End of 2020, Hong Kong’s stock market was pegged as the fastest growing stock market in the world, ranked the 3rd largest in Asia and the 5th largest in the world in terms of market capitalization.
What changed? Who influenced this change?
After Britishers took control of the Island City, they developed Hongkong as a major port for the British Empire to trade with China and the rest of the Far East.
In 1937, Japan invaded China and took control of Hongkong. Post-Pearl Harbour (attack by Japan on the US, which forced the US to enter 2nd world War) on 7th Dec 1941, Hongkong became a colony of Japan till August 1945. Japanese ruthlessly massacred thousands of Chinese & Hongkong nationals during these three and a half years. The global trade hub was completely shut and curtains were brought down, breaking all export links.
Hongkong started resurrecting once again post the collapse of Japan after Hiroshima & Nagasaki nuclear bombings.
Soon in 1949, communists took control of China and the Hongkong free economy came under threat once again. Next 2 years from 1949 till 1950, Hongkong saw a massive influx of refugees/immigrants. With 1 immigrant for every 2 locals, Hong Kong's economy witnessed huge pressure on its resources.
With no minerals, no oil, no agriculture, and not even an adequate water supply, Hong Kong was gazing at a dark future.
To top it all, the situation worsened with the emergence of the Korean War in June 1950 where Communist China sided with Communist North Korea. The impact of the war was so severe that all trade ties which existed with Europe, the United States & the rest of the Capitalist Western world collapsed like a pack of cards.
With this challenging situation, people & administration in Hong Kong had 2 choices, curb immigration, put checks by using power or use this opportunity to transform the country.
Hong Kong chose later & changed the way the situation is looked at, thereby changing the outcome as well. A small island driven by a communist regime became a hub of economic activity.
Hongkong started tearing, the War-torn ship (ships destroyed in Korean War) and using that steel for local construction as well as for exports. Today Shipbreaking is a major industry in Hongkong. The smart entrepreneurs imported machinery from Western markets and started producing quality textiles using cheap labor who had immigrated to Hongkong from Mainland China.
Why did this happen?
In Quantum Physics, there is a theory known as the Observer Effect, which states that mere observation of a situation or phenomenon inevitably changes that phenomenon.
To illustrate this using an example: To view an object one needs to put light on it. It is not possible to see any object without light hitting the object, and causing it to reflect that light. While the effects of observation are often negligible, the object still experiences a change.
The way or more importantly from the perspective One look at the situation changes the outcome of the situation.
This observer effect is applicable in our lives as well.
If one looks from only one perspective, the outcome or solution that one may arrive at will be the same. For getting a better outcome, one needs to look at things from a different point of view, from a different angle, evaluating the situation using a different lens.
Does this apply while Investing?
More often than not, investors look at 52 weeks high / 52 week low prices before investing. If the stock is touching an all-time / 52 week high, one believes that one should be selling it instantly, on the other hand, if the stock is near to its 52 weak low, most believe that it may be a good time to buy or hold on to the existing position. The thought behind this argument is how much stock can fall further when it is already nearing 52 weeks low and thus no point booking the losses. Some investors use a smart term for this complete exercise, which is called: Investing with Margin of Safety.
To bring another point of view, the stock has touched its 52 week high and if its profitability and earnings continue to grow, can in a few months or quarters stock price be even higher. At the same time, if the earnings and revenues for the second stock continue to fall, can the price be even lower than its all-time low or 52 weeks low?
Does it happen in our Work life and in relationships?
We always have a few team members who are continuously excited about things. They keep checking with their superiors on every bit of decision as well as probing the rationale & effectiveness of every action.
Few may have also experienced having children who keep asking lots of questions and making noise & hullabaloo.
One way to look at both these situations is to complain about constant nagging and persistent pain from children and team members.
The brighter side of the road can lead us on a different path. Constant questioning & probing leads to improvement in knowledge & learning. With constant prodding, one is forced to relook at the generally accepted norms and defined methodologies which may not hold well with current times or with future situations.
If someone questions one’s beliefs or asks for its relevance in today’s world, one is forced to bring rational change in thoughts and in processes thereby generally improving overall act, thus influencing the outcome.
A famous motivational speaker once said,”
If you change the way you look at things, the thing you are looking at changes as well.
The Coke Story
In April 1865, a chemist cum surgeon named John Stith Pemberton fighting American Civil War got chest wounds. To ease his pain, he started using Morphine. In the next year, he realized he got addicted to Morphine. During the same period, he saw thousands of injured fellow comrades addicted to morphine, who were fighting in the American Civil War. To help himself and his comrades & to alleviate pain without addiction, he began experimenting with pain killers that would be free from morphine.
After multiple rounds of failure, he finally made a recipe from Cocaine leaves or COCA and Kola nut which contains Caffeine.
Both these eventually lead to the evolution of COCA Cola making it the biggest brand in the World. John used his & others' addiction to relook at the entire pain-alleviating process thereby inventing something different altogether.
Thus Siddhartha Rastogi says;
If one wants to have a higher probability of a better outcome, one needs to think of possibilities beyond one’s memorized instant reaction.
It will help both, improve the odds of winning as well as bring new learning opportunities.
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