An error of the past or Wisdom of the future
War is not over yet, are there any lessons?
What matters most — Character or Competency?
What will the new world look like, post-Russian — Ukrainian War?
The beginning of the third decade of the 21st century brought many lessons for families, communities, and even countries. Lessons that have left their mark, deep in the subconscious mind, etched well in the memories, and profound enough for humanity to start thinking, acting, and living differently.
Almost everyone on this planet is concerned today and has views on the Russian –Ukrainian War. Some favor Russia whilst others are in favor of Ukraine. Both sides have decisive, robust, and conclusive arguments justifying one’s position. Whatever be the outcome of the War, innocent lives (civilians and soldiers) on both sides will suffer and will pay a huge price mentally, physically, and economically.
War is the same, both sides of the war have different viewpoints.
One War- Two Perspectives- One fighting to protect the Present, One fighting to protect the Future.
I am writing this note on Day 6 of the Russian Ukrainian War and am hopeful that this War and the bloodshed which came along with it should get over before you are reading this note.
Even if the War gets over, the fear of War is far from getting over.
The beginning of the 21st century came with a lot of hope, innovation, and technological advancement, but in a short span of 21 years passed in this century, the world witnessed three eras.
1. 2008 GFC — People who are the wiser side of the 40s, will reckon a world that was built and created pre-financial crisis and one that exists Post Financial Crisis. Most economists call a World before GFC (Great Financial Crisis), where monetary policy was an effective tool to manage economic catastrophe and now there exists a world which is after GFC, marred or blessed (pun intended) by inexhaustible currency printing and limitless quantitative easing (solving any shock by easy liquidity).
2. Covid-19 — Then came Covid in 2019 or 2020, whichever way one wishes to look at it. With Covid, a distinction came into existence for the entire humanity but especially for millennials– a Pre-Covid World & a post-Covid world (A world where everything is virtual from friends to meetings to work to money, to entertainment, to marketing, and now even real estate is virtual — Metaverse).
3. Russian Ukraine War — Tensions started mounting up in Nov –Dec 2021 and the end of February brought forth the unexpected, one of the deadliest conflicts in Europe post the Second World War. The War may be over by the time one is reading this note or may continue to annihilate the existence of several innocents who are just there caught at the wrong time amongst two conflicting sides.
War, conflict, and clash will get over, but this bloodshed will change Europe and the West, never to be the same as it was before.
Post the War, the allies of Russia, the immediate neighboring countries will also dread the invasion and aggression and there begins a race for getting nuclear-empowered as well as militarily equipped. (Belarusians voted on 28th Feb 2022 to give up Non-Nuclear status and allow the country to host Russian forces permanently).
In other words Friends and foes of Russia, will fear the possibility of aggression from any and every corner, and thus readiness with arms, ammunition will take supremacy.
Europe will prioritize external border protection over economic progress.
A unipolar world with the US leading the way became history after the Withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and action or lack of it of the US in Ukraine reaffirmed that either one needs to pay to be defended by being part of NATO or one simply needs to own one’s defense equipment & military.
Petrodollars (USD) currently being the reserve currency will also soon find itself exiting the World stage with Crude & gas being settled through barter or through crypto or other digital financial mechanisms. (China & Russia have signed a 30-year Crude and Gas supply to be settled in Euro. More such arrangements will follow suit.)
War is not over as yet but there are some deep lessons, one can pick up from the errors of the past which may prove to be the wisdom of the future.
1. Internal Strength over External Promises
Ukraine had and has a large quantum, of Uranium for nuclear energy as well enough to build nuclear bombs. In 1991 when Ukraine gained impendence it had nearly 5000 nuclear arms, long-range missiles and was assessed as the third-largest nuclear power of that time. In 1994, Under Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia, Ukraine, Britain, and the US, promised that none of these nations will use force or threat that will impact the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. Also, the signing nations vowed that if an act of aggression takes place, these nations will call out the UN Security Council for immediate action.
One today knows, what happened to such vows and promises. Thus it’s imperative to build inner strength whether it’s a country, whether it’s a community, or a household. Self-reliance with a balanced approach is the key. It also taught investors that not only resilient businesses matter, but stable geography matters as well whether socially, economically, or geo-publically.
2. Action & Reaction during adversity matter, not the Size, strength, or stature
The below chart describes the might of both the nations at War.
Over and above the Arms, Ammunition, and defense systems, Russia has a strong military base in Crimea.
Last but not the least, the two Vlads (Presidents of Russia and Ukraine) — Putin and Zelenskyy both diametrically opposite poles apart. Putin an astute politician, military leader, with confident assertiveness with commanding demeanor, who was with KGB(main security agency for Russia) and rose up to the ranks of lieutenant colonel and has been at the helm of Russia and controlling the country since 1999.
On the other hand inexperienced Zelenskyy who has never been in politics, a former actor, a former comedian, and a law graduate started his political career in 2018 and attained huge support majority of people to be elected as President in 2019.
Two different leaders with different martial prowess, yet Zelenskyy has been declared as the Warrior and the War Hero of the World. It’s important to point out the fact that the outcome of this conflict doesn’t matter anymore.
Zelenskyy has already unified Ukraine and perhaps the entire Europe where outsiders are willing to come and fight for Ukraine. His courage, his communication, and his transparency have shown that strength does not lie in commanding large fleets but in Character and this possibly can change the outcomes in any sphere of life whether War or Wages.
The one who fights the War, never wins the War, the one who triggers the War, benefits from it.
3. The war one gets is the War one seldom prepares for
Russia has been preparing for war for months, whilst Ukraine has been following the diplomacy route. On 24th Feb 2022, Russia unexpectedly attacked the capital Kyiv through the shortest route from the Belarus border, hoping that they would face limited resistance keeping in mind that Ukraine is largely disarmed and Russia will lay siege through air, land, and water — all possible routes. But something different happened.
With average citizens and strangers willing to pose resistance to Russia, the War surely is not going as per the Russian plan.
Russia would have thought that showing and creating a fear of nuclear ability and the possibility of a nuclear attack, will push Ukraine and Western allies to surrender faster, but it Unified Europe faster.
Finland, Sweden, Turkey, Germany, Switzerland which were neutral states, started leaning against Russia, putting full-fledged sanctions and a few preparing to be allied to NATO quickly.
This War will change not only geopolitical relations but also economic relations for good. Most of Europe currently dependent on Russian energy is and will move even faster toward independent renewable energy resources.
Siddhartha Rastogi always says,
“People don’t change, circumstances change. When circumstances change, the people’s attitude and perspective changes.”
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